近日，美國著名國際關(guān)系學者、芝加哥大學政治學系教授約翰·米爾斯海默（John J. Mearsheimer）在2015年分析烏克蘭局勢的一場公開課在網(wǎng)上熱傳。他在公開課上表示，美國始終想方設(shè)法拉攏烏克蘭進入西方陣營，俄羅斯對此做出回應(yīng)，這令人意外嗎?
米爾斯海默在2014年發(fā)表于美國《外交》雜志上的文章《為何烏克蘭危機錯在西方：激怒普京的自由主義錯覺》（原標題：Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault——The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin）中，對俄烏局勢有過詳細分析。其中他指出：
“美國及其歐洲盟國才是烏克蘭危機的主要責任方。危機根源是北約東擴。東擴背后的宏大戰(zhàn)略是，要把烏克蘭從俄羅斯防衛(wèi)圈中解脫出來，融入西方懷抱。”
“The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the Ukraine crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West.”
在米爾斯海默看來，普京的舉措不難理解：
“拿破侖時期的法國、德意志帝國和納粹德國都曾越過烏克蘭的廣袤平原侵略俄羅斯，因此，這是俄羅斯戰(zhàn)略上重要的緩沖地帶。沒有一個俄羅斯領(lǐng)導人會容許烏克蘭與其宿敵結(jié)盟。當西方扶植烏克蘭建立一個決心加入西方陣營的新政府時，任何俄羅斯領(lǐng)導人都不會坐視不管。”
“A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was determined to integrate Ukraine into the West.”
米爾斯海默表示，這是典型的地緣政治（geopolitics）：“大國對于邊境線上的潛在威脅十分敏感。畢竟，美國也不會容忍其他大國在西半球部署軍隊，更不要說周邊地區(qū)。”
“Great powers are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory. After all, the United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, much less on its borders.”
米爾斯海默認為，“美國和歐洲的精英之所以對時局視而不見，完全是因為他們持有錯誤的國際政治觀念。他們以為21世紀不需要現(xiàn)實主義，以為歐洲憑著法治、經(jīng)濟互聯(lián)和民主等自由主義理念便可縱橫天下。”
“Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic interdependence, and democracy.”
公開課中，米爾斯海默以美國冷戰(zhàn)時期奉行的門羅主義（Monroe Doctrine），替美國“換位思考”了一把：
“門羅主義基本上是說，西半球是我們的后花園，任何遠邦都不允許在西半球部署軍事力量。”
“The Monroe Doctrine basically says that the Western hemisphere is our backyard, and nobody from a distant region is allowed to move military forces into the western hemisphere.”
米爾斯海默表示，所以如果有哪個世界大國在美國邊境陳兵，美國會重拾起門羅主義進行對抗。
因此，米爾斯海默認為，“美國把烏克蘭納入西方的勢力范圍會惹惱俄羅斯，這完全不該讓人感到意外。”
“So, nobody should be surprised that the Russians were apoplectic about the idea of us putting Ukraine on the western side of the ledger.”
在文章《為何烏克蘭危機錯在西方》中，米爾斯海默大膽預言，“美國及其歐洲盟友在烏克蘭問題上面臨選擇。他們可以繼續(xù)執(zhí)行現(xiàn)在的政策，加劇與俄羅斯的沖突，讓烏克蘭狀況進一步惡化——所有人都將是輸家。”
“The United States and its European allies now face a choice on Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process — a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser.”
“或者，他們可以改變方向，共同建立經(jīng)濟繁榮、政治中立的烏克蘭，不針對俄羅斯，讓西方與莫斯科修復關(guān)系。若能實現(xiàn)，所有人都將是贏家。”
“Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win.”
來源：《外交》雜志，觀察者網(wǎng)，中國日報雙語新聞，The University of Chicago
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