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3月3日至4日，國(guó)家衛(wèi)健委高級(jí)別專家組組長(zhǎng)、中國(guó)工程院院士鐘南山與歐洲呼吸學(xué)會(huì)候任主席安妮塔·西蒙斯博士進(jìn)行了視頻連線，向歐洲呼吸學(xué)會(huì)介紹與分享了中國(guó)抗擊新冠肺炎疫情的成果和經(jīng)驗(yàn)。



Q: About logistics. How to increase medical care for those who are unwell but not very sick?
關(guān)于組織管理方面的問(wèn)題，如何管理確診的輕癥患者。



西蒙斯博士提問(wèn)，中國(guó)是如何擴(kuò)增隔離措施的？中國(guó)新建了很多（方艙）醫(yī)院，對(duì)于癥狀不嚴(yán)重的患者，如何增強(qiáng)他們的醫(yī)療護(hù)理？我們還看到你們征用了體育館，這種機(jī)制如何建立，有沒(méi)有可以借鑒的地方。

鐘南山院士回答：“這種方法可以區(qū)分開(kāi)感染和健康的人群。在早期，感染者進(jìn)行了居家隔離，但是感染了他們的家人。”

“I suppose that method could separate the infected people from the healthy people. At that time, the infected people just stayed at home and infected their family.”

“所以首要任務(wù)是將大量感染者與健康人群隔離開(kāi)。”

“The priority was to separate and to distinguish the infected people from healthy people.”

“所以我們新建了方艙醫(yī)院，可以把大量居家感染者轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)去，讓他們待在那里。”

“So we set up simple hospitals or wards and asked them to stay there. That's where those huge number of patients can go.”

Q：AI modeling on the effects of the quarantine. Was the shut down in Wuhan efficient?
您的疫情預(yù)測(cè)模型中考慮到了防疫措施的效果，當(dāng)時(shí)關(guān)閉離漢通道效果如何？



西蒙斯博士提問(wèn)，疫情初期，武漢關(guān)閉了離漢通道，當(dāng)時(shí)很多人對(duì)此持疑問(wèn)態(tài)度?，F(xiàn)在看起來(lái)這一措施效果明顯，大家都是這樣認(rèn)為嗎？

鐘南山回答：“我認(rèn)為這是政府采取的一個(gè)非常好的措施。”

“I think it is definitely a good procedure that the government has taken.”

“專家委員會(huì)確認(rèn)了肯定存在人傳人感染，同時(shí)有不少醫(yī)護(hù)人員感染，情況非常危急。”

“Experts of committee announced that there is definitely human-to-human transmission. And a lot of medical staffs being infected. That is a very serious situation.”

“隔離是非常重要的一步。”

“Isolation is really an important step.”    

“我建議其他國(guó)家應(yīng)該采取類似的措施。”

“I suppose other countries should be doing something like that.” 

對(duì)此，西蒙斯博士則認(rèn)為，意大利采取了類似的措施，但是對(duì)于歐洲大城市而言，采取這樣的措施就很困難了。

鐘南山則表示，這可能是對(duì)付疫情的唯一辦法。對(duì)于這樣的新型病毒，我們沒(méi)有特效藥的情況下，這是防止疫情擴(kuò)散最古老也最有效的辦法。

"I suppose that's the only way because we don't have a targeted medication. It's a new virus, so probably that's the oldest and the most efficient way to prevent it from further spreading."

在視頻連線中，鐘南山做了有關(guān)中國(guó)處理這次疫情的方法的介紹。


 
鐘南山介紹了此次新冠肺炎疫情的基本特征；臨床救治經(jīng)驗(yàn)分享及藥物試驗(yàn)進(jìn)展以及臨床救治中遇到的問(wèn)題，疫情發(fā)展趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)等事項(xiàng)。

其中，鐘南山介紹了中國(guó)控制疫情擴(kuò)散的措施：

·1月23日，武漢“封城”：不要去武漢，不要離開(kāi)武漢；
·實(shí)時(shí)發(fā)布全國(guó)每個(gè)城市每天的確診或疑似患者人數(shù)。
·啟動(dòng)聯(lián)防聯(lián)控機(jī)制，堅(jiān)持早發(fā)現(xiàn)、早報(bào)告、早隔離、早診治
 


鐘南山提出，很多研究團(tuán)隊(duì)公布的預(yù)測(cè)模型并沒(méi)有納入“政府及時(shí)干預(yù)”等參數(shù)，因此預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果并不準(zhǔn)確。

The predictions made by overseas scholars haven't taken into account the strict control measures in China, which led to possibly exaggerated research results, respiratory scientist Zhong Nanshan said.

鐘南山所在團(tuán)隊(duì)此前設(shè)計(jì)的預(yù)測(cè)模型（模型使用的數(shù)據(jù)截至2月9日）納入了更全面的參數(shù)，包括國(guó)家強(qiáng)力干預(yù)（Government management）、春節(jié)后回流高峰消除（migration）等。



模型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示，國(guó)內(nèi)疫情將在2月下旬達(dá)到高峰，4月底得到基本控制。目前，疫情流行數(shù)據(jù)均在該模型的預(yù)測(cè)范圍內(nèi)。

“Here is our prediction. This is actually by using AI to predict the patients’ situation. The interventions put practice on 23 Jan. The peak will be at the end of February. That is about 60,000. It is quiet close to the reality. ”

鐘南山認(rèn)為，全國(guó)、特別是湖北以外地區(qū)的確診病例數(shù)正在下降。同時(shí)他表示堅(jiān)持早發(fā)現(xiàn)、早隔離、早診治是防控疫情的關(guān)鍵。

“Outside Hubei, the (number of) new diagnosis cases is going down. Hubei’s is going down as well. I think the strong action from the government to carry on the ‘early detection’, ‘early isolation’ and ‘early diagnosis’ is the key to control the disease. ”
 

（圖片來(lái)源：廣州呼吸健康研究院。左圖：全國(guó)/湖北/非湖北新增確診病例曲線圖；右圖：全國(guó)/湖北/非湖北現(xiàn)有確診病例曲線圖 ）

鐘南山還表示，一些歐洲國(guó)家陸續(xù)出現(xiàn)了疫情暴發(fā)，應(yīng)當(dāng)盡早防止擴(kuò)散。他指出，必須通過(guò)檢測(cè)區(qū)分出新冠肺炎和流感。中國(guó)愿意把自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分享出去，與歐洲呼吸學(xué)會(huì)互通有無(wú)。

綜合來(lái)源：央視新聞，中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)雙語(yǔ)新聞，歐洲呼吸學(xué)會(huì)官網(wǎng)